New research from Hillier will reveal that climate change will reshape the future of tree selection across the UK and predicts fundamental changes to which species should be grown, specified and planted over the next 50–75 years.

With recent periods of extreme weather serving as a timely reminder of the challenges facing our landscapes, leading tree grower, Hillier, is preparing to publish pioneering new research exploring how climate change could influence the future of tree selection across the UK.

For the industry-leading research, Hillier has partnered with Urban Plant Lab, a not-for-profit research organisation dedicated to supporting better plant selection and more resilient green infrastructure through science-led research, guidance, and training. Together, they have explored how commonly specified tree species could respond to projected climate conditions across the UK.

The report includes detailed climate suitability mapping, species-by-species analysis and practical recommendations to help inform future nursery production, tree specification and long-term landscape resilience. It also combines climate modelling with detailed plant data to build a stronger evidence base for tree selection, helping landscape professionals make more informed, long-term decisions on how projected conditions may influence different species across the UK.

Future responsibilities

Discussing the project, Adam Dunnett, Director of Amenity at Hillier, commented: “Trees are planted with the future in mind. Whether destined for streets, parks, housing developments or public spaces, many of the species selected today will still be growing well into the next century. As growers, we therefore have a responsibility to think well beyond today.”

“We’re already seeing the effects of changing weather patterns through hotter summers, prolonged periods of drought and more frequent extreme weather events. Those conditions inevitably raise important questions for both growers and our customers which is exactly why we wanted to undertake this research. The aim wasn’t to create a completely new list of trees for the UK, but to better understand how the species we already grow are likely to perform as our climate changes, while identifying where there may be opportunities to introduce others that are better suited to future conditions. The findings are already informing our own production planning, climate resilience trials and long-term thinking as one of Europe’s largest tree growers.”

The value of the research

Explaining the value of the research, Kevin Martin, Research Fellow at Urban Plant Lab, and Head of Tree Collections, Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, said: “By integrating high-resolution climate models with detailed plant data, we can better anticipate how species will respond over time, enabling more informed, long-term decisions for urban forestry and conservation. Understanding regional variation is critical, as it ensures strategies are tailored to local environmental conditions rather than relying on broad assumptions.”

Among the report’s findings is that while many familiar tree species are expected to remain resilient across much of the UK, others could become increasingly vulnerable in some regions as temperatures continue to rise.

The report will reveal that there is reason for both optimism and careful planning. While many of the UK’s most widely planted tree species are expected to remain suitable under future climate conditions, the research also identifies species that could become increasingly vulnerable in some regions over the coming decades. Understanding where these changes are likely to occur will help growers, specifiers and landscape professionals make more informed long-term planting decisions. Discussing some of the report’s key findings, Dr Andrew Hirons, Director of Urban Plant Lab, and Senior Lecturer in Arboriculture and Urban Forestry, University Centre Myerscough, said: “Whilst it was reassuring that much of the UK remains suitable for many of our native trees, it is clear that species such as silver birch (Betula pendula), wild cherry (Prunus avium), small-leaved lime (Tilia cordata), and large-leaved lime (Tilia platyphyllos) are set to become vulnerable in the south-east England towards the end of the century. This could have a profound impact on our landscapes if we do not address the challenge.”

Register for early access

The full research report will be officially launched at both GroundsFest and the Arboricultural Association Conference this September. Those wishing to be among the first to receive the full report can register now for exclusive early access ahead of its official launch.

Scan the QR code to register, or register here: https://trees.hillier.co.uk/climate-change

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